Thursday, May 19, 2011

Will The Diamond Dawgs Make The Postseason?

Finally Some College Baseball Talk on DBTH!

So here's the deal:  I started this blog two months ago, in the spring, and I'm finally writing about college baseball.  Don't worry, there will be plenty more as we near the postseason on the road to Omaha.

If my beloved Georgia Diamond Dawgs are to start the journey, they must do some work here in the next week.  To make the regionals as an at large team, you must be at least one game over .500, which is where the Dawgs stand now at 27-26.  After playing the toughest schedule in the nation and being in 4th place in the SEC, Georgia is assured a berth in the SEC Tournament next week in Hoover, AL.  With an RPI of 25, conventional wisdom says if Georgia could finish one game above .500, they would be a near lock for the field of 64. 

Therein lies the hard part.  Georgia's regular season finishes with a three-game series against Top 5 Vanderbilt tonight at 7:30 on ESPNU.  They will face a sure-fire top 10 pick in next month's MLB Draft, Sonny Gray.  Since the SEC West winner would get the #2 seed in Hoover, Georgia could draw the #5 seed and be in a bracket with Vanderbilt, the SEC East winner, and either South Carolina or Florida, both of which are top 5 in the country. 

For Georgia to make it in, they need to do at a minimum:

Scenario 1: 
1.  Take 2 of 3 from Vandy
2.  Win 1 game in the SEC Tournament (double-elimination)
This would leave the Dawgs at 30-29 and should make them a lock.  Two wins versus Vanderbilt and possibly another in the first game of the SEC Tourney would boost the Dawgs into the RPI Top 20 with ease. 

Scenario 2:
1.  Lose the Vandy series (either 1-2 or get swept)
2. MUST WIN the SEC Tournament (and get the automatic bid)
This would be tough as well, because Georgia has never won the SEC Tournament and has gone two-and-out on many occasions, even the College World Series teams.  This scenario is much less likely in comparison to Scenario 1.

My Take:  As much as I've appreciated the job Coach Perno and the players have done in righting the ship this year, even under very difficult circumstances, I just don't see either scenario above playing out.  I don't put anything past the resolve of the Diamond Dawgs, and wouldn't be shocked if they made a way, but I give them about a 30% chance of making the NCAA Regionals.  I'll be down at the game tonight, so let's see if we can increase that percentage against one of the best teams in the country.

1 comment:

  1. UPDATE: After losing 2 of 3 to Vandy, it looks like it's Scenario 2 or nothing for the Diamond Dawgs. They don't have to win the SEC Tourney, but they must win 3, which means they must reach the finals.

    I give that a 5% chance of happening. It's pretty much curtains on the Diamond Dawgs postseason chances.