I'm BAAACK! And Here's The Rest Of My Way Too Late Preseason Top 25

Alright, so if you don't know already, I am a football coach myself and I've had a really busy start to the season. I dropped off at #13 as I released my preseason Top 25, so here's the rest of it, if you care:

#12 Nebraska
#11 Notre Dame
#10 Texas A&M
#9 Georgia
#8 Florida State
#7 LSU
#6 Oregon
#5 Boise St.
#4 Virginia Tech
#3 Wisconsin
#2 Oklahoma
#1 Alabama

I know that just about everyone else picked an Oklahoma/Alabama championship game, but there's a reason for that:  those are the two best teams in the country.  I still think Virginia Tech and Wisconsin are the darkhorse favorites to sneak in the title game if the Tide or Sooners stumble.

I'm disappointed that I drank the Kool-Aid on Notre Dame, as I usually don't buy the national hype they undeservedly get each year.  I got caught up in the second year of Brian Kelly, thinking this could be the year the Irish step forward and rejoin the national spotlight.  I guess I was wrong.

I'm sure I'll get the most grief for my #9 Georgia pick, put let me say this: they have played their two toughest games already and could be favored in the last 9.  Remember Virginia Tech last year?  They lost to Boise and FCS James Madison before running the table and winning the ACC Championship.  Chances are it won't happen for Georgia, but don't say it can't.

What do you make of the first 3 weeks of the college football season?  I promise I'll be on here more, dropping powerful knowledge about college football and the NFL.  You can buy that hype!

2011 DBTH Top 25 Countdown to Kickoff: #15, #14 and #13

Today we will continue the Don't Buy The Hype 2011 College Football Countdown, showcasing teams #17 and #16 in the polls.

Here's what you've missed so far:
#25 Arizona State
#24 BYU
#23 Clemson
#22 Southern Miss
#21 Michigan State
#20 Oklahoma State
#19 Ohio State
#18 Arkansas
#17 USC
#16 Stanford


I will be predicting the games from each teams' schedule, using this key:
Sure Win  Swing Game Win  Swing Game Loss  Sure Loss

#15 TEXAS LONGHORNS

2011 Season Forecast

9/3 Rice

9/10 BYU

9/17 @ UCLA
10/1 @Iowa St.

10/8 Oklahoma

10/15 Oklahoma St.

10/29 Kansas

11/5 Texas Tech

11/12 @ Missouri

11/19 Kansas St.

11/24 @ Texas A&M

12/3 @ Baylor

My Take:  Last year, Murphy's Law was in full effect for the Longhorns.  If it could go wrong, it did.  Give Mack Brown credit, as he evaluate his program and made some changes to correct the problems.  Last year's 5-7 record was the only season in Mack Brown's tenure in which the Horns didn't win at least ten games!  Expectations have been lowered for Texas, and that could help motivate them to return to national prominence.  The schedule is very manageable, and they should be favored in all their road games with the exception of Texas A&M.  As I stated in THIS ARTICLE back a few weeks ago, Texas is a lock to overachieve this year, and is wins over Oklahoma and A&M away from possibly playing for a national championship.

Final Prediction:  10-2

#14 SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS

2011 Season Forecast

9/3 East Carolina (Charlotte)

9/10 @ Georgia

9/17 Navy

9/24 Vanderbilt

10/1 Auburn

10/8 Kentucky

10/15 @ Mississippi St.

10/29 @ Tennessee

11/5 @ Arkansas

11/12 Florida

11/19 The Citadel

11/26 Clemson

My Take:  Last year, for the first time, South Carolina made it to Atlanta and played for the SEC Championship as winners of a watered-down SEC East. Because of this, they are being rated in the Top 10-12 in most preseason polls.  As good as the Gamecocks appeared at times (in the Swamp last year, for example) people are forgetting they LOST 5 GAMES!  South Carolina is notorious for winning big games and blowing winnable games.  They also have a ticking timebomb at quarterback, and that's never a good thing.  I rank Carolina at #14 because they will start higher in the polls, but this year is prime for a step back in Columbia.  I give them the nod over Tennessee because they will have a week off before, while UT is getting beaten on at Alabama, despite the fact they've only won once in Knoxville.  As is the case every year, the Georgia game is the key to the season.  Whoever wins that game always has a much better season than the loser.

Final Prediction:  9-3

#13 TCU HORNED FROGS

2011 Season Forecast

9/2 @ Baylor

9/10 @ Air Force

9/17 ULM

9/24 Portland St.

9/30 SMU

10/8 @ San Diego St.

10/22 New Mexico

10/28 BYU (Jerry World)

11/5 @ Wyoming

11/12 @ Boise St.

11/19 Colorado St.

12/3 UNLV

My Take:  TCU has a lot to replace, especially at quarterback.  Andy Dalton leaves as the all-time winningest QB in Mountain West history.  With only three returning starters, the offense will take a few games to gel.  I do think this will cost them in one of the first two games, most likely at Air Force.  Defensive Coordinator Dick Bumpas will have the defense rolling, but with a trip to Boise in November, TCU won't be going undefeated this year.


Final Prediction:  10-2


As you noticed, I released three teams today, and will be doing so in order to get all of the Top 25 released by this Saturday.  Stay tuned for #10-12 tomorrow!

2011 DBTH Top 25 Countdown to Kickoff: #17 and #16

Today we will continue the Don't Buy The Hype 2011 College Football Countdown, showcasing teams #17 and #16 in the polls.


Here's what you've missed so far:
#25 Arizona State
#24 BYU
#23 Clemson
#22 Southern Miss
#21 Michigan State
#20 Oklahoma State
#19 Ohio State
#18 Arkansas





I will be predicting the games from each teams' schedule, using this key:
Sure Win  Swing Game Win  Swing Game Loss  Sure Loss

#17 USC TROJANS

2011 Season Forecast

9/3 Minnesota

9/10 Utah

9/17 Syracuse

9/24 @ Arizona St.

10/1 Arizona

10/13 @ California

10/22 @ Notre Dame

10/29 Stanford

11/4 @ Colorado

11/12 Washington

11/19 @Oregon

11/26 UCLA

My Take:  Lane Kiffin has managed to stockpile some talented young players, despite scholarship reductions and a two-year bowl ban.  USC could go 12-0 this season and would still be watching the Pac-12 title game on television.  The Trojans have a pretty light home schedule (Stanford is the best game) but there are some tough road contests to navigate.  Back-to-back road games at Cal and Notre Dame will determine just how good the Trojans will be.  If they can win both of those games, a possibility, then they could show up at the Autzen Zoo with a 10-0 record.  USC may be overlooked by pollsters this season due to their postseason irrelevance.  At much as it pains me to say it, Lane Kiffin is picking up Pete Carroll's pieces quite well.  

Final Prediction:  9-3 

#16 STANFORD CARDINAL

2011 Season Forecast

9/3 San Jose St.

9/10 @ Duke

9/17 @ Arizona

10/1 UCLA

10/8 Colorado

10/15 @ Washington St.

10/22 Washington

10/29 @ USC
11/5 @ Oregon St.

11/12 Oregon

11/19 California

11/26 Notre Dame

My Take:  While Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck might be the best player in the nation, the Cardinal lost a lot when head coach  Jim Harbaugh bolted to the 49ers.  They have an unproven head coach and return only 12 starters.  They will begin the season ranked in the Top 10 and will take advantage of a light early season schedule to be in the national title race at mid-season.  Andrew Luck will most likely be the Heisman front-runner, but a three game stretch beginning with a game at USC will determine their fate.  My prediction for nine wins could even be a little bit on the high side; a 7-5 season would not be surprising to me at all. 

Final Prediction:  9-3

Come back tomorrow for #15 and #14!

2011 DBTH Top 25 Countdown to Kickoff: #19 and #18

Today we will continue the Don't Buy The Hype 2011 College Football Countdown, showcasing teams #19 and #18 in the polls.


Here's what you've missed so far:
#25 Arizona State
#24 BYU
#23 Clemson
#22 Southern Miss
#21 Michigan State
#20 Oklahoma State


I will be predicting the games from each teams' schedule, using this key:
Sure Win  Swing Game Win  Swing Game Loss  Sure Loss

#19 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

2011  Season Forecast

9/3 Akron

9/10 Toledo

9/17 @ Miami (FL)

9/24 Colorado

10/1 Michigan St.

10/8 @ Nebraska

10/15 @ Illinois

10/29 Wisconsin

11/5 Indiana

11/12 @ Purdue

11/19 Penn St.

11/26 @ Michigan

My Take:  This is the most tenuous selection in my Top 25.  The Buckeyes' are still under investigation by the NCAA, although it appears unlikely that any further sanctions will be levied before this season begins.  Luke Fickell begins his head coaching career in a pressure cooker, and you can assume that will cost Ohio State at some point this season.  As you can tell by the schedule, there are eight games that I think could go either way for the Buckeyes.  Even though they will be without some key players early, there is enough talent remaining to get the job done.  Also, I believe these other guys will be playing with a purpose, to prove that Ohio State football isn't about entitled thugs.  They have a  proud tradition in Columbus and if Fickell can rally the troops, Ohio State will exceed expectations.

Final Prediction:  9-3

#18 ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS

2011 Season Forecast

9/3 Missouri St.

9/10 New Mexico

9/17 Troy

9/24 @ Alabama

10/1 Texas A&M (Jerry World)

10/8 Auburn

10/22 @ Ole Miss

10/29 @ Vanderbilt

11/5 South Carolina

11/12 Tennessee

11/19 Mississippi St.

11/25 @ LSU

My Take:  After the recent season-ending injury to SEC-leading rusher Knile Davis, many people are discounting the potential of the 2011 Arkansas Razorbacks.  Let me say this: Ronnie WIngo and Broderick Green will pick up the slack just fine, and Arkansas will still be good.  The road to Atlanta is very tough for the Razorbacks, as they have to face the two best in the West (Alabama and LSU) on the road.  They also have a date with a very good Texas A&M team in the House that Jerry Built.  If they can pull off one of the tough road games, especially at Alabama, Arkansas could be in Atlanta in December with a chance to play for a national title.

Final Prediction:  9-3 

2011 DBTH Top 25 Countdown to Kickoff: #21 and #20

Today we will continue the Don't Buy The Hype 2011 College Football Countdown, showcasing teams #21 and #20 in the polls.


Here's what you've missed so far:
#25 Arizona State
#24 BYU
#23 Clemson
#22 Southern Miss


I will be predicting the games from each teams' schedule, using this key:
Sure Win  Swing Game Win  Swing Game Loss  Sure Loss

#21 MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

2011 Season Forecast

9/2 Youngstown St.

9/10 Florida Atlantic

9/17 @ Notre Dame

9/24 Central Michigan

10/1 @ Ohio St.

10/15 Michigan

10/22 Wisconsin

10/29 @ Nebraska

11/5 Minnesota

11/12 @ Iowa

11/19 Indiana

11/26 Northwestern

My Take:  Michigan State has a very good team this year, but a daunting road schedule that will keep them out of Big 10(12) title picture, most likely.  If the Spartans do make it to the championship game, they will have certainly earned the right to be there.  Road games at Notre Dame, Ohio State, Nebraska and Iowa will test their meddle and they need to win one of those conference road games to have a chance to make it to Indianapolis.  The best chance at stealing one of those will be at Ohio State, since their key players will still be serving their suspensions.  They have generally played poorly at Iowa and seem to always find a way to beat Notre Dame, though I don't see that happening this year.  


Final Prediction:  8-4

#20 OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS

2011 Season Forecast

9/3 UL-Lafayette

9/10 Arizona

9/17 @Tulsa

 9/24 @ Texas A&M

10/8 Kansas

10/15 @ Texas

10/22 @ Missouri

10/29 Baylor

11/5 Kansas St.

11/12 @ Texas Tech

11/18 @ Iowa St.

12/3 Oklahoma

My Take:  Mike Gundy, with help from T. Boone Pickens' check book, has turned Oklahoma State into a hot commodity in the college football landscape.  They are highly rated in the preseason year-after-year, mainly due to the flashy firepower of their uptempo spread offense. They return 9 starters on offense and have the best receiver in the country, Justin Blackmon.  While they will be the sexy pick to unseat favorite Oklahoma in the Big 12(10), a tough road schedule will make that a dream instead of a reality.  A September date at Texas A&M will be a huge challenge, but the Cowboys' season rests on a two week road trip to Texas and Missouri.  If they can beat Texas in Austin for a second straight year, and finish off Missouri in Columbia, the Pokes could set up a showdown in the Bedlam Game for a shot at the Big 12(10) Title, and possibly an undefeated season.  I don't see that happening, though, as the road schedule is just too tough this year.

Final Prediction:  9-3

Stay tuned as we continue the countdown to #1!

2011 DBTH Top 25 Countdown to Kickoff: #23 and #22

Today we will continue the Don't Buy The Hype 2011 College Football Countdown, showcasing teams #23 and #22 in the polls.


Here's what you've missed so far:
#25 Arizona State
#24 BYU


I will be predicting the games from each teams' schedule, using this key:
Sure Win  Swing Game Win  Swing Game Loss  Sure Loss

#23 CLEMSON TIGERS

2011 Season Forecast

9/3 Troy

9/10 Wofford

9/17 Auburn

9/24 Florida St.

10/1 @ Virginia Tech

10/8 Boston College

10/15 @ Maryland

10/22 North Carolina

10/29 @ Georgia Tech

11/12 Wake Forest

11/19 @ NC State

11/26 @ South Carolina

My Take:  2011 has the making for a huge bounce back for Clemson.  Coming off their first losing season in over a decade, the Tigers have a lot to prove.  They have a chance to step into the national title race with a three game stretch against Auburn, Florida State and Virginia Tech.  A win over the Seminoles will give them the inside track to the ACC Championship Game.  To achieve the level of success they want, the Tigers must avoid their notorious slip-ups.  Games at Georgia Tech and NC State late in the season could be landmines.  When Clemson hired Dabo Swinney full-time, they didn't have 6-7 seasons in mind.  The Tigers have the talent in place to be a Top 15 team, without question.  If they underachieve again this season, Swinney's seat may get a bit hotter next offseason.

Final Prediction: 8-4

#22 SOUTHERN MISS EAGLES

2011 Season Forecast

9/3 Louisiana Tech

9/10 @ Marshall

9/17 SE Louisiana

9/24 @ Virginia

10/1 Rice

10/8 @ Navy

10/22 SMU

10/29 @ UTEP

11/5 @ East Carolina

11/12 UCF

11/19 @ UAB

11/26 Memphis

My Take:  Each year, there is usually one Conference USA team that flirts with an undefeated season, and fights there way into the Top 25.  Many people think the Houston, behind 6th year QB Case Keenum will be that team, and they could be.  However, I think Southern Miss will be that team.  If they can win road games at East Carolina and Virginia, and undefeated season could be in the works.  The Eagles do return a lot of experience and will be a surprise to many of the national pundits.

Final Prediction:  10-2

Stay tuned tomorrow for #21 and #20!